Production of Picea abies in South-east Norway in Response to Climate Change: A Case Study Using Process-based Model Simulation with Field Validation

Abstract

A process-based model was used to simulate biomass production of Norway spruce under both current climate and climate change scenarios. The model was parameterized for Nordmoen in south-east Norway using real climate data for the period 1987-1989. The model was applied to predict the biomass production responses to three climate change scenarios. The results showed that net primary production (NPP) increased by 7% under an elevated annual mean air temperature of 4°C from the current 10.1 t dry mass ha -1 yr -1 . A doubled current ambient CO 2 concentration significantly increased NPP by 36%. The scenario of both elevated temperature and elevated CO 2 concentration led to an increase in the NPP of 49%, higher than the sum of the two effects acting singly. The results also showed that forest production responses to climate change depend on the conditions of climate used for reference.