Abstract
A new method based on Monte Carlo simulation for composite power system production costing and reliability evaluation, considering apparatus outage probabilities and load forecast uncertainties, is presented. Random numbers are generated, according to appropriate laws, to simulate the state of the apparatus and the demand of the bus loads. Through successive application of the minimum cost flow algorithm, it is capable of handling the economic dispatch problem existing in the procedures. In this paper, the reliability of the system is measured in terms of expected demand not served (EDNS) and loss of load probability (LOLP). The EDNS and therefore the expected unserved energy (EUE) associated with an expansion plan can be evaluated further as an equivalent penalty cost due to service interruption. This benefits the application of the proposed method for selection between alternatives in power system planning. Another advantage of this method is that an expected power flow pattern is generated as the byproduct. Application of the method is demonstrated using the IEEE five-bus test system.
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