Abstract
This study aims to find out the most compatible method specification used to forecast the production and prices of red chili and to analyse the results of the production and prices forecasting of red chili in North Sumatera in 2028. The analytical methods used are the linear trend analysis, quadratic trend analysis, and exponential trend analysis where the three method specifications will be tested with MSE and MAPE to see which one is the most compatible. The results indicated that quadratic trend analysis is the most compatible one and that both the production and the prices forecasting are having a negative trend. The decreasing of production is caused by the decreasing of red chili’s planting area while the decreasing of prices is caused by the decreasing of demand for red chili.
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