Product resilience evaluation: A Bayesian network modeling based method

Abstract

Future products will have a higher degree of intelligence, and more complex and changing use environments, so resilience has been introduced into the design and operation of products as a concept that helps them cope with high-impact shocks and the damage they cause. With the work on product resilience, there is a need to find methods that can objectively reflect product resilience. Existing methods that can be used to evaluate product resilience are usually based on performance curves, but it is difficult to reflect the multifactorial and stochastic character of product resilience process. Therefore, this paper firstly reviews the resilience related research, and analyzes the factors affecting product resilience and their interrelationships layer by layer to construct the index system of product resilience. Then, a Bayesian network model is established based on the results of the above analysis, and the corresponding calculation method is proposed. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated with a case study of a complex terrain drilling rig and its improvement program. After discussion, the proposed method can be applied to the quantitative evaluation of product resilience, and the possible design direction of resilient products can be suggested using this method.