Producing drop-in biofuel from feedstock grown on marginal land in Sumba island, Indonesia: a systems dynamics analysis

Abstract

To improve sustainability, liquid biofuel can be produced by growing biomass feedstock on marginal land and using innovative and appropriate conversion technology under development. Throughout the Indonesia Archipelago, oil fuel imports are high, and marginal land is abundant. This study assessed future potential for drop-in biofuel (DBF) production from Pongamia pinnata oilseed crops as driven by various policy and technical parameters. A systems dynamics approach was applied and a model developed to simulate the dynamics of developing DBF technology at the national level. The potential use of marginal land in Sumba Island was taken as a case study to assess the projected DBF production as well as any increase in the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) by 2045. The model outputs showed there is an inter-relationship between biofuel development and political elements, especially the level of sense of urgency (SU) by the country’s President. In enhancing DBF production, and hence increasing GRDP, SU can be increased and sustained by empowering a future vision for the nation. Given a maximum future vision over time, 100% of liquid fuel self-sufficiency could be reached in Sumba by 2033. Then the GRDP increased from DBF-related revenues would exceed the current total GRDP.