PROCYON’s probability analysis of accidental impact on Mars

Abstract

Launched on December 3, 2014 as the secondary payload with Hayabusa 2 mission, the “Proximate Object Close flYby with Optical Navigation” mission or PROCYON is the world’s first 50kg-class micro-spacecraft developed by the University of Tokyo and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. Its mission objective is to demonstrate a micro-spacecraft bus technology for deep space exploration and proximity flyby to asteroids performing optical measurements. As a deep-space mission with enough energy to reach the orbit of Mars, PROCYON needs to demonstrate impact probability on Mars compliance with the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy. In this paper, we demonstrated the method of impact probability analysis for PROCYON with both a high-level assessment as B-plane based phase-free and a low-level assessment as high fidelity model propagation. As a conclusion both assessment levels have proven that the probability of the impact on Mars is below the 10-2 margin required by COSPAR.