Processes for managing project uncertainty with contingency planning

Abstract

One of the most pervasive problems faced by project managers is controlling a large project in an uncertain and distributed work environment. We believe that many of the inherent difficulties in managing large engineering and software projects result from difficulties in managing the uncertainty inherent in any lengthy, complex undertaking. Currently available project management tools allow the project manager to perform “what-if” and risk analyses, but do not support the management of an uncertain project environment. Existing decision support systems allow analysis of known facts about the project, but they focus upon what should be done with information after it is available. They do not support decision-making in the face of evolving and often insufficient project information, and they do not support the decision-maker when a plan must be enacted even before a decision can be made. Also, they assume that decisions are made once, instantaneously, and in isolation from the external project environment.In our approach, we respond to the presence of project uncertainty by supporting the manager in developing and enacting competitive contingency plans. Competitive contingency plans are those plans which solve a particular project objective, and which are performed concurrently because sufficient information is not available to allow the manager to choose the single most appropriate plan. The competing plans are simultaneously enacted because project uncertainty precludes selection of a single correct course of action, and the manager must proceed with project tasks based only on the information at hand. In this paper, we address the management of contingency plans in the inherently uncertain environment of large-scale projects. Our major objectives for this research are to define and implement a process for decision-based contingency planning, and a knowledge structure to support this process. By utilizing this decision process model, we will be able to see the effects of new information upon the project and communicate the new information to affected project team members.KeywordsProject managementdecision-based system developmentcontingency planninggroup communicationuncertainty