Process-Based Attribution of Summer Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Related to the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract

Abstract Using the ERA5 reanalysis data and the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method (CFRAM), we attribute the mechanism of summer upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) variations in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region to several external forcing and internal feedback processes. The summer UTT in the SASM region is dominated by two modes. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF1) is a monopolar warming pattern, and the second EOF mode (EOF2) shows a meridional dipole pattern. CFRAM results show that summer UTT anomalies are mainly attributed to cloud feedback and nonradiative processes of atmospheric dynamics (ATD) and surface-related processes. For EOF1, ocean heat storage and partial cloud feedback processes contribute most UTT anomalies over the Indian Ocean. The ATD increases the UTT over East Asia through the adiabatic warming caused by anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere. The formation of EOF2 is closely linked to the ATD, while the cloud process partially compensates for the excessive changes in UTT caused by the ATD. The South Asian high and its circulation in the midlatitude region are significantly enhanced. The anomalous anticyclone over northern East Asia along with the anomalous easterly wind on the south side of the South Asian high favors increased warm advection and adiabatic heating, contributing to the warming of UTT. Meanwhile, adiabatic cooling resulting from the atmospheric ascent in the middle and upper troposphere leads to UTT cooling over the Indian Ocean. The quantitative attribution of UTT has great implications for better understanding future SASM variation. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to understand the physical mechanisms of upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) changes in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). Although previous studies have examined temperature variation from the perspective of atmospheric circulation, there has been limited investigation into the influence of various feedback processes. Our study reveals that the summer UTT in the SASM region is dominated by monopolar and meridional dipole modes. Utilizing a climate feedback–response analysis method, we attribute the UTT anomalies in the SASM region to the cloud feedback, oceanic heat storage, and atmospheric dynamics processes, and explore the physical mechanisms of their effects. These results have important implications for the better prediction of monsoon variability.