Procalcitonin, brain natriuretic peptide and albumin as markers to predict prognosis in hospitalized older Japanese patients with a risk of infection.

Abstract

Whether serum concentration of procalcitonin (PCT), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and albumin (Alb) have an association with the outcome of hospitalized older patients is unclear. We investigated clinical outcomes and any predictive factors in hospitalized Japanese older patients with a risk of infection. In the retrospective study, 820 Japanese patients were followed up for 30 days or until death. During the observation period, 656 patients survived and 164 patients died. The predictive factors of death were analyzed according to demographic and clinical variables. The survival rate was decreased as the serum PCT increased from <0.5 to ≥10 ng/mL, as was also the case with BNP from <300 to ≥300 pg./mL, whereas low Alb (<2.5 g/dL) showed a lower survival rate than high Alb (≥2.5 g/dL; P < 0.01). Using the Cox regression model, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were as follows: PCT 0.5-2 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 1.61(1.04-2.49), PCT 2-10 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 1.91(1.15-3.16), PCT ≥10 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 2.90(1.84-4.59), high BNP 1.26 (0.89-1.76) and low Alb 0.68 (0.52-0.87). The mortality rate increased as the number of scores (PCT + BNP + Alb) increased. Concentration-dependent high PCT, high BNP and low Alb were positive risk factors associated with poor prognosis in hospitalized older patients with a risk of infection. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; ••: ••-••.