PROBLEMS REGARDING THE FORMATION OF THE METHOD OF DETERMINING THE EFFICIENCY OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY

Abstract

The methods of evaluating the effectiveness of innovation activity in relation to the investment aspect are proposed, the peculiarity of which is the fact that the amount of project money flows and the amount of investment costs, in particular working capital, needed for introducing the assets of an innovative project into industrial exploitation for the production of promising types of products with the use of the newest technologies and innovations are taken into consideration. It is proved that the main limiting factor of innovation activity of enterprises is a high level of risk accompanying innovation projects. The risk of an innovation project is defined as the possibility of implementation of unfavorable scenarios or consequences that can lead to the situation, when its participants’ goals won’t be achieved (in other words, the project will prove to be ineffective). In the article the application of the method of cognitive modelling for the estimation of risks is suggested. The application of this approach is possible, since it is established that the system of innovation risks is weakly structured. The process of cognitive modelling risks of the innovation project is presented in the thesis as two alternating stages: conceptual (formation of the model as factors (carriers) of the innovation risks and cause-and-consequence relationships between them) and mathematic (calculation of system indicators of the cognitive card: the consonance of impact and interaction between concepts, as well as the consonance of influence and interaction of concepts with the system). It is established that application of the cognitive modelling technology can be considered as one of possible variants of development of methodical tools for risk of innovative projects assessment in the conditions of limited time and the need to take into account the complex system of interconnections of quite a large number of heterogeneous risk factors. The results obtained can be the basis for developing an adequate anti-risk mechanism for managing the effectiveness of innovation projects. The evaluation and realization of selection of the innovation projects during the expertise at the enterprise level is grounded with their division into two classes: local, which are offered to be assessed according to their effectiveness for the enterprise, and socially significant, which have to undergo the procedure the expertise taking into account of the priorities of the development of the system of higher order. It was determined that the evaluation of the innovation project covers two main areas: preliminary expert evaluation of the project in terms of its relevance to the goals and resources of the enterprise; detailed assessment of the efficiency of investments in the innovation project.