Problems of Long-Term Geographic Prediction

Abstract

A program of geographic prediction up to the year 2000 is proposed for inclusion in the teaching and research plan of the Geography Faculty of Moscow University. Three aspects are distinguished: (1) specific forecasting of changes on the face of the earth and in the use of resources, (2) the elaboration of methods of geographic prediction, and (3) prediction of future trends in the science of geography. The three key factors in specific geographic prediction are the hydroclimatic, the anthropogenic, and the resource factor. The principal method of prediction should be the study of chain reactions, of cause-and-effect relationships, allowing for flexible multivariate forecasts. In the science of geography, periods of differentiation and integration are found to have alternated at periods of 25 to 30 years. The most promising tendencies in geographic research are the hydroclimatic approach, the new synthetic disciplines, economic geography, and integrated mapping of geographic phenomena.