Problems in the Perinatal Prediction of Child Abuse

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to consider and comment critically upon the recommendation by some eminent authorities that efforts be made to design and implement procedures to predict the abuse of children. My view is that this move toward prediction—'sponsored' largely by American paediatricians—is less of a new departure than an extension of the dominant conceptual tradition whereby child abuse is seen as analogous to a disease. However, in spite of its basis in a medical model, it is clear that the idea that the abuse of children can be accurately predicted has great appeal for many social workers. I shall argue, however, that serious obstacles stand in the way of prediction; that these obstacles are insufficiently appreciated by the advocates of prediction; and that—consequently—social workers (and others) should temper with scepticism their enthusiasm for these developments.