Abstract
Existing forecasts of Russian energy sector development have a number of general provisions and differ in approaches to their construction. The most realistic forecast is made within the framework of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035. However, the dynamism and high uncertainty of economic processes, international relations, domestic policy and the rapid growth of scientific and technical progress need a systematic correction of any forecast. The purpose of the article is to develop theoretical provisions and practical recommendations for making a forecast for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex based on the application of the factor approach. The forecasting results are used in the development of management decisions, therefore, the authors of the article take into account the influence of various factors while making the forecast, but they (factors) are all quantitatively commensurable. To make a reliable forecast, the internal environment of the research object is studied in detail, organizational and economic problems in the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex are revealed, and methods for their elimination are suggested. The external environment is also analyzed and trends in the development of world energy markets are revealed. To forecast the state of the fuel and energy complex, an integral indicator is chosen reflecting the level of its technical and economic development.
Highlights
The types of economic activity associated with the production and transformation of fuel and energy resources into various types of energy and energy carriers have always had a special significance for the national economy of Russia
The study carried out by the authors made it possible to identify and quantify factors affecting the development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia
The positive impact of innovation on the development of the domestic fuel and energy complex was proved, as well as the fact that the scale of this activity should be very significant in order to achieve those indicators that have been planned in the Energy Strategy of Russia
Summary
The types of economic activity associated with the production and transformation of fuel and energy resources into various types of energy and energy carriers have always had a special significance for the national economy of Russia. In the second half of the XIX century due to significant and available reserves of coal and oil, the country had an optimal structure of the fuel and energy balance. The establishment and development of all branches of the national economic complex in the Soviet Union, the fulfillment of plans for a five-year economic development would not have been possible without the availability of its own energy resources in sufficient quantities. The transition to a market economy in the 1990s, the restructuring of the social and political system in the country increased budget expenditures manifold, which were recovered by revenues from energy exports.
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