Problem of Mathematical Model Adequacy in Assessing the Seismic Risk

Abstract

The problem of mathematical models' adequacy in assessing seismic risk is considered. It is demonstrated that the currently used methods of testing such models make it possible to assess only the consistency of simulation and real data by counting the number of earthquake epicenters that appear in the areas with increased values of the fields with various indicators. The paper proposes a fundamentally new approach to testing adequacy of the seismic risk assessment models based on examining statistical hypotheses. Application of this approach is considered in a seismic risk assessment model for the territory of Armenia and the adjacent regions. Practical implementation of the proposed approach and the results obtained convincingly confirm that the tested mathematical model is adequate. Normality of the seismic risk values general set distribution calculated by the probabilistic model for Armenia and the adjacent territories is presented. Correlation coefficients of theoretical and empirical frequencies distribution are 0.75--0.99. It is shown that adequacy of the seismic risk assessment probabilistic model should be checked taking into account the earthquake abyssal levels. Conclusions are provided on operability and possibility of further use of the considered method in checking adequacy of assessing the seismic risk mathematical models