Probing the Financial Sustainability of Eskom’s Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) Utilisation (2018–2021)

Abstract

Contributing to achieving sustainability in South Africa’s energy sector, this study probes financial sustainability and its relationship to the environmental sustainability of Eskom. This is because, over the past three financial years (FY2018–2019 to FY2020–2021) of Eskom’s generating plants’ performance, the energy availability factor (EAF) has taken a deep dive, reaching an extremely low generation availability year-end performance of 64.2%, translating to approximately an average of 29,800 MW available generation capacity out of a nominal generation capacity of 46,466 MW in FY2020–2021. Therefore, the study employed a quantitative research methodology, where the relevant financial records were analysed, and the necessary energy calculations made using descriptive analysis in Microsoft Excel. The findings show that the volumes (GWh) produced by the OCGTs during this period far exceed the regulatory approved volumes, thus attracting substantial costs, amounting to ZAR 25.9 bn instead of ZAR 8.9 bn, that could have been spent on the OCGTs if the level of efficiency achieved in FY2016–2017 and FY2017–2018 was maintained. The analysis also revealed that the OCGTs’ long-term financial and environmental sustainability could be achieved through switching from diesel to natural gas, thus resulting in lower fuel costs and lower emissions. Further, potential savings of approximately ZAR 27 bn (excluding capital expenditure) at a 10% load factor can be realised over a ten-year period when the natural gas price is sitting at ZAR 85/GJ (minimum). Finally, in order to attain financial and environmental sustainability, it is recommended that both Eskom’s and the independent power producers’ (IPPs) OCGTs must switch fuel from diesel to natural gas and be run at a 10% load factor, allowing the OCGTs to be run as mid-merit generators.