Probing CO2 emission in Chengdu based on STRIPAT model and Tapio decoupling

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of global warming. Conducting CO2 emission projections and identifying the decoupling relationship between CO2 emission and economic growth are significant guidelines for assessing carbon reduction measures and green economic development. This study accounts for Chengdu's CO2 emission from 2009-2020 in terms of energy activities, industrial processes, waste disposal, and photosynthetic in green spaces, then follows the STIRPAT model to project CO2 emission for the four scenarios from 2021-2035 and uses the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the CO2 emission and economic growth decoupling status. The results show that: (1) The increase in energy consumption is the leading cause of the growth of CO2 emission in Chengdu. (2) Population and energy intensity will be the main influencing factors of Chengdu's CO2 emission. 1% change in population and energy intensity will cause 1.617128%, and 1.355371% changes in CO2 emission; (3) Chengdu can meet its commitment to peak carbon by 2025. Business as usual (BAU) is the best choice for Chengdu to achieve low-carbon development. At the peak, the CO2 emission will be 66.04 million tons, and the per capita CO2 emission will be 3.15 tons. (4) During the outlook period, Chengdu's CO2 emission and economic growth will change from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, reaching an ideal state. Measures focused on stimulating more low-carbon potential and momentum, strengthening the green transformation of all aspects of production and life can help Chengdu achieve a more excellent carbon peak. The results greatly reference for the carbon peaking process in other cities worldwide.