Probable maximum loss of a pipe network due to earthquakes: a case study in Iloilo city, Philippines

Abstract

PurposeBuried structures like pipeline systems or water distribution networks (WDN) are vulnerable to seismic activities and the risk of damages increases when there is liquefaction. This paper aims to propose a methodology on how to determine the probable maximum loss (PML) on pipeline systems when earthquakes and liquefaction occur in future scenarios.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used historical data and presents a case study on how the methodology to estimate the PML was used. The estimation is analytic and relied on simulations to determine the seismic and liquefaction hazard in the study area. Statistical and numerical analysis was used to estimate the damages and losses.FindingsThe output shows the PML of a WDN at different earthquake scenarios. It also shows a comparison between the damages and losses of diameter sizes of the pipes.Research limitations/implicationsIn this paper, the damages behaved independently in one area, and correlation was not considered.Practical implicationsThis PML methodology can aid in pre-disaster planning to prepare for seismic countermeasures risk transfer such as insurance to reduce the loss.Originality/valueThis paper shows a methodology and example on how to estimate the damages and PMLs of an existing WDN of a projected earthquake and liquefaction hazard based on historical data.