Probable Consequences of Permafrost Degradation of the Social Infrastructure

Abstract

The article proposes an approach to assessing the probable damage from permafrost degradation by the middle of the 21st century for the fixed assets of healthcare and education located in the permafrost zone of the Russian Arctic. The high importance of social infrastructure in the Arctic territories implies the need for priority attention to ensuring its safety and smooth functioning. The lack of publicly available statistical information on the fixed assets value by economy sectors at the municipal level, required to assess potential damages, predetermined the need to solve the problem of developing an appropriate methodology for its assessment. The study showed that under the worst scenario of climate warming by 2050 and subsequent permafrost degradation in the Russian Arctic permafrost zone, the fixed assets of healthcare and education with a total value of about 79 and 162 billion rubles, respectively, can be subjected to destruction and deformation.