Probable Collective Responses to Ecological Scarcity

Abstract

Natural systems have limits of tolerance that produce an ensemble of interacting constraints on human action. This ensemble, ecological scarcity, presses people and nations toward zero-sum competition. Over the past nine decades, collective behavior theory has advanced enough to show us the social dilemmas and structurally conducive conditions for targeted hostility we can expect in an era of carrying capacity deficit. After centuries of economic and social development, mankind now faces sharp reversal, making revolutions likely within nations, and wars over access to scarce resources likely between nations. People have been slow to recognize the vulnerability of ecosystems and the seriousness of pressures to overload them, but such awareness may be an essential basis for a critical ability needed to protect us from panic and from resort to catastrophic violence.