Probability-based extensive quantitative risk analysis: collision and grounding case studies for bulk carrier and general cargo ships

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this study, the risk of collision and grounding accidents on bulk carrier and general cargo ships was investigated. A comprehensive risk analysis consisting of past accident reports, fault tree analysis (FTA) and Cut sets importance measure (CS-I) methods was carried out. The failures effective in the occurrence of collision and grounding accidents were determined by examining past accident reports. In the study, the probability for each failure was derived by using real accident data. Using FTA, various potential accident occurrence combinations/scenarios, also known as minimal cut sets (MCSs), for both accident types were obtained. In addition, prioritization was conducted for the MCSs of both types of accidents using CS-I sensitivity analyses. The faults that increase the risk of collision accidents the most were found to be interpretation failure of the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions (COLREG) and lack of situational awareness. In addition, the top failures that lead to groundings were determined to be lack of communication in bridge resource management (BRM), fatigue/sleeplessness and inappropriate voyage plan. Recommendations are made for eliminating potential risk factors, preventing the recurrence of such accidents and establishing safer maritime transport.