Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study

Abstract

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.