Probability prediction and cost benefit analysis based on system dynamics

Abstract

Abstract It is known that optimizing the investments on safety to reduce probabilities of blowout fire is very challenging due to the complexity of operational systems which involve varieties of potential contributors and ranges of safety measures. In this paper, a new method to evaluate blowout fire prevention and control measures is proposed in a cost effective manner. Firstly, a dynamic probability prediction model for blowout fire is proposed through the system dynamics (SD) method. The dynamic probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform is predicted according to the proposed model. Secondly, cost-benefit analysis of the corresponding safety measures is carried out using SD simulation via Vensim software. Thirdly, a case study of blowout fire probability prediction and the cost-benefit analysis of safety investments are demonstrated for some offshore drilling platform. The simulation results show that the predicted probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform increases from 2.41E−6 to 3.997E−6. The probability prediction formula of blowout fire is nonlinear fitted to obtain the intrinsic relationship between the probability of blowout fire and time. The case study shows that the built cost-benefit analysis model can be used to optimize the allocation of safety investments.