Probability of upheaval buckling for subsea pipeline considering uncertainty factors

Abstract

ABSTRACTFor buried subsea pipelines, upheaval buckling may occur under high pressure and high temperature service conditions. Pipelay initial imperfections and pipe–soil interactions have significant impacts on the upheaval buckling behaviours of pipelines. For a subsea pipeline designed to be installed, these two factors could be seen as random variables along the route and the approach to evaluate the upheaval buckling probability of this subsea pipeline under uncertainty conditions is proposed in this paper. Probabilistic evaluations for initial imperfections which would induce pipeline upheaval buckling and the influences from the pipelay vessels are included in this approach. Furthermore, the method of reliability evaluation can also be employed for evaluating the probabilities of lateral buckling for high temperature pipelines, or the snake-lay anti-buckling technique.