Probability of simultaneous multiple leakages at sections of water networks in the process of localization of hidden water leaks

Abstract

Hidden leaks from water supply networks account for 50% to 90% of total leakage losses. The presence of two or more simultaneous leaks in a section of the water supply network significantly reduces the accuracy of locating hidden leaks. The method of independent Poisson events and the hypothesis of stationarity, absence of consequences, and ordinariness of leaks are used for the probabilistic description of the problem of multi-leakage in water supply networks. The analytical dependence of the probability of multiple leakages on the specific annual emergency rate of the site, its length and the duration of the localization and repair period is obtained. A generalized semi-empirical equation was obtained for estimating the maximum permissible duration of the localization and repair period depending on the annual emergency rate of the site for a given multi-leakage probability.