Abstract
Objective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025. time series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death. There was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025. From the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.
Highlights
Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) include diseases of the circulatory system, diabetes, neoplasms and chronic respiratory diseases, accounting for the largest morbidity and mortality burden in the world and for 63% of global deaths[1]
In the period from 2000 to 2013, there was a decline in the rate of premature mortality by Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) (2.5% per year), varying according to the disease: 4.1% in chronic respiratory diseases, 3.4% in cardiovascular diseases, 2.1% in diabetes and 0.87% in cancer (Figure 1)
All regions showed a tendency towards a decrease in mortality due to NCDs, and the rates in the Northeast exceeded those in other regions, they all tended to approximate over the study decade, indicating that NCDs are widespread and are leading causes of death in all five Brazilian regions
Summary
Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) include diseases of the circulatory system, diabetes, neoplasms and chronic respiratory diseases, accounting for the largest morbidity and mortality burden in the world and for 63% of global deaths[1]. These diseases lead to loss of quality of life, limitations and disabilities[1,2]. NCDs involve individuals from all socioeconomic strata, especially the most vulnerable ones, such as low schooling and income groups[4,5], further increasing the poverty among people affected by disabilities and limitations, and reducing the productive force[6]. Data from the National Health Survey PNS (2013) showed that more than 45% of the adult population, i.e., 54 million individuals, reported having at least one NCD2,7-9
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