Abstract
The distribution of mother-child specific probabilities of paternity exclusion was calculated from 200 routinely tested Swedish cases of disputed paternity. The distribution is markedly skewed with a considerable portion of exclusion probabilities being unsatisfactorily low as compared to the mean. There is a positive correlation between the exclusion probability and the likelihood ratio (paternity index) used in Scandinavia for computation of Bayesian paternity probabilities of non-excluded men. The expected characteristics of these distributions are indicated, and a modified test procedure accounting for the variation of exclusion probabilities is discussed.
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