Abstract

Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than one order of magnitude relative to the true MAC rate value. The model is applied to Danish airspace and the MAC rate for unmitigated operations of UA is found to be approximately 10−6 MAC per flight hour. The model is particularly well suited for beyond visual line‐of‐sight operations, and is useful for UA operators for conducting risk assessment of planned operations as well as for regulators for determining appropriate operational requirements.

Highlights

  • The operations of light commercial unmanned aircraft (UA) are becoming more ubiquitous, as the various technologies necessary for operating longer, safer, and more accuratly are maturing

  • This work was in part prompted by the Danish Transport, Housing, and Construction Authority (DTCHA) in an effort to determine risk of midair collisions (MACs) for beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) operations in Danish airspace

  • The distributions used for general aviation (GA) and UA are given in Sections 3.1.3 and 3.1.4, respectively

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Summary

Introduction

The operations of light commercial unmanned aircraft (UA) are becoming more ubiquitous, as the various technologies necessary for operating longer, safer, and more accuratly are maturing. As the number of UA in most national airspaces is growing rapidly, especially for amateur users, it has become evident through an increasing number of reports of near-misses that collisions between UA and commercial aircraft are likely to occur, and the consequences could be catastrophic (FAA Center for Excellence for UAS Research, 2017a, 2017b) Virtually all such cases are illegal operations where the UA have entered into controlled airspace, typically close to flight routes for commercial aviation. When operating BVLOS, UA are generally not able to comply with this method, and technologies that allow UA to reliably detect GA (such as radar, LIDAR, cameras) are still both quite expensive and somewhat immature For this reason, it is valuable to estimate in a quantitative way the actual probability of MAC. This estimation will allow authorities, aircraft manufactures, and operators to assess the risk, and plan and execute flights

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