Abstract
In order to predict the potential of liquefaction spread for sandy soil surface ground, a methodology is presented which evaluates probability of fraction of liquefaction spread for a zone under study, conditional on earthquake hazard. The SPT values are considered variables which are spatially correlated. The method which is used on this study is a Monte Carlo simulation based on a disjoint set of sampling density functions to make easy the sampling of random variables which are, otherwise, to be sampled from a joint probability density function of general distribution. The ground is modelled to consist of three dimensional discrete semi-zones having discrete elements in the vertical direction. A liquefaction potential index that is widely used in the design practice in Japan to account for the distribution of the safety factor in the soil-column direction, is employed as the performance function for the probability of liquefaction spread, and the numerical results are presented as a fragility curve of liquefaction spread.
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