Probability of extremist threats within the ethno-national realm manifesting in Russia

Abstract

This article examines such an issue as the manifestation of extremist threats within the ethno-national realm in Russia. A survey (carried out using questionnaire survey and in-depth interview methods) conducted among 20 experts, who are qualified specialists in the field of counteracting ethnic extremism, analysis of the results of extensive sociological research, as well as scientific work and mass-media publications on the topic allowed to identify the most probable extremist threats, which within the next 5–7 years will start negatively affecting the ethnonational situation in the country, and evaluate their potency. Ethno-national threats with the highest probability, based on expert opinion (with 5 being the average value), include terrorist acts, ethno-national conflicts and mass anti-social displays. The results of extensive sociological surveys suggest that public opinion in Russia, together with the conclusions drawn by the interviewed experts, lean towards a positive evaluation of the state and dynamic of terrorism countermeasures in Russia. However, a considerable amount of terrorism-related crimes, them presenting a serious threat to the public and their prevalence in Russia demands decisive efforts on behalf of the government and society to implement effective countermeasures against potential threats of terrorism. A fairly high degree of probability (with 4 being the average value) was attributed by experts to conflicts occurring within the next 5–7 years between the central government and Russian regions, accompanied by calls to violent action under the guise of nationalism. Somewhat lower probability, according to experts (with 3 being the average value), was attributed to such manifestations of ethno-national threats as calls to overthrow the current government, as well as violent acts targeting government officials and law enforcement, Russian citizens of another nationality or foreign citizens. The least likely threats to manifest (with 2 being the average value) experts considered possible attempts to alter the foundation of the country’s constitutional order, as well as the creation and functioning of illegal armed formations. Expert evaluation of ethno-national threats seem to be reasonably valid, with them being confirmed by conclusions drawn while carrying out extensive sociological research, and by the results of analysis of mass-media publications on the topic of the threats in question. The results of scientific research cited in this article indicate the importance of the further study of ethno-national threats, especially such hazardous ones as terrorist acts, ethnic conflicts and mass ethno-national or ethno-religious based anti-social displays