Probability of discoveries between research fields to explain scientific and technological change

Abstract

One of the fundamental problems in science is the understanding of discovery and innovation process to explain scientific and technological change in society. The study confronts this problem here by analyzing the different probability of unique (singleton) and multiple discoveries between research fields to clarify the inventive behavior in science and technology. The method here supposes that the occurrence of discoveries between research fields follows the Poisson distribution. This probabilistic model is applied to determine the probability of singletons and multiple discoveries, and inventions in medicine and physics that are critical research fields to science and society. We find that, over a period of ten years, the probability that at least one discovery occurs in physics and medicine is a rather similar event (11.1%), whereas the probability that at least two discoveries occur in these research fields is less than 1%, i.e., a very rare event. Results also suggest that the probability of patented inventions in medicine is higher than physics. The different probability of patented inventions in medicine can be mainly due to more opportunistic scholars, scientific institutions and stakeholders, associated with university-industry collaborations to develop inventions and commercialize innovations to solve health problems in society. These findings show the property of heterogeneity in inventive process between research fields and specificity of scientific and technological paths based on nature and scientific ecosystem of each discipline. These characteristics contribute theoretically to extend the theories of scientific change and practically to improve the decision making of policymakers for better allocating resources and supporting scientific planning having a positive societal impact of science.