Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China

Abstract

Abstract: Fire weather indices have been widely applied to predict fire risk in many regions of the world. The objectives of this study were to establish fire risk probability models based on fire indices over different climatic regions in China. We linked the indices adopted in Canadian, US, and Australia with location, time, altitude, vegetation and fire characteristics during 1998–2007 in four regions using semi— parametric logistic (SPL) regression models. Different combinations of fire risk indices were selected as explanatory variables for specific regional probability model. SPL regression models of probability of fire ignition and large fire events were established to describe the non—linear relationship between fire risk indices and fire risk probabilities in the four regions. Graphs of observed versus estimated probabilities, fire risk maps, graphs of numbers of large fire events were produced from the probability models to assess the skill of these models. Fire ignition in all regions showed a ...