Abstract

The chapter discusses the fact that probability exists—but just barely. It is incredible that all applications of the calculus of probability in the natural and social sciences are representations and evaluations of subjective attitudes. Quantum mechanics is not a description of opinion, nor are statistical mechanics and genetics. Both the probability and the possibility assessments are expressions of states of judgment, which are neither true nor false. Probabilistic concepts are used in scientific applications to represent conditions under which objects and systems respond in various ways to experimentation. Stochastic attributions, like attributions of dispositions of dispositions, abilities and compulsions, are predications of properties to objects. Statistical probability is construed according to the Venn–von Mises approach to interpreting statistical probability and the Kolmogorov–Cramer–Braithwaite approach. Approaches along the lines of Kolmogorov–Cramer–Braithwaite are to be preferred because they seek to understand statistical probability by—namely, (1) articulating the formal requirements for a stochastic model and (2) offering an account of the epistemic or evidential connections between hypothesis about statistical probability and hypothesis about test behavior.

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