Abstract

A method based on the statistical analysis of estimates of the uncertainty of the input parameters of a prediction model is proposed. Distributions of expected data on the time of attainment of maximum concentrations of radionuclides were obtained by the Monte Carlo method for a concrete model of radionuclide migration in porous media. It is shown that, for this model, the logarithm of maximum concentrations of radionuclides and the time of their attainment obey the uniform-distribution law.

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