Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones

Abstract

Abstract. Due to synoptic-climatological reasons as well as a specific configuration of mountain ranges, the northeast part of the Czech Republic is an area with an enhanced influence of low-pressure systems of the Mediterranean origin. They are associated with an upper-level advection of warm and moist air and often lead to heavy precipitation events. Particularities of this area are evaluated using a regional frequency analysis. The northeast region is identified as a homogeneous one according to tests on statistical characteristics of precipitation extremes (annual maxima of 1- to 7-day amounts), and observed distributions follow a different model compared to the surrounding area. Noteworthy is the heavy tail of distributions of multi-day events, reflected also in inapplicability of the L-moment estimators for the general 4-parameter kappa distribution utilized in Monte Carlo simulations in regional homogeneity and goodness-of-fit tests. We overcome this issue by using the maximum likelihood estimation. The Generalized Logistic distribution is identified as the most suitable one for modelling annual maxima; advantages of the regional over local approach to the frequency analysis consist mainly in reduced uncertainty of the growth curves and design value estimates. The regional growth curves are used to derive probabilities of recurrence of recent heavy precipitation events associated with major floods in the Odra river basin.