Probability entropy approach to the calculation of time before failure of seaport electrical systems

Abstract

The paper substantiates the method of calculating the operating time to failure of the seaport electrical equipment under the influence of a set of destabilizing factors on the basis of the principle of the maximum entropy production. The interpretation of the results of applying the principles including the concept of entropy to the mathematical models of wear that are used in the theory of reliability is given. The paper considers the probability characteristics of the electrical contacts of mooring columns exposed to the influence of the marine airborne environment. A method for calculating the operating time to failure of marine equipment based on the principle of the maximum entropy production (Ziegler’s principle) was developed. The proposed method is based on the physical principle, which includes the fundamental physical law – the second principle of thermodynamics. In this paper, a new value of the working time corresponding to the maximum observed rate of entropy change is determined. The presented results on finding the operating time to failure of electrical contacts, when exposed to a marine multifactorial environment (as a system with a system-forming connection, in the form of entropy), confirm that the use of the maximum entropy production principle as a criterion for operating time corresponds to the real values of the operating time of devices, and the principle itself gives a physical representation of occurring processes. The paper uses an exponential representation of the probability function of the operational state with an approximated, non-stationary failure rate.