Probability distributions of extreme wind speed and its occurrence interval

Abstract

This paper investigates the probability distributions of extreme wind speed and its occurrence interval based on extreme wind speed data recorded in Hong Kong. The Type I extreme value distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution and two-parameter Weibull distribution are adopted in this study to fit the wind speed data. It is found from the hypothesis test that, although the three distributions are all suitable for describing the probability distribution of the extreme wind speed data, the Type I and the three-parameter Weibull distributions are more appropriate than the two-parameter Weibull distribution. It is also observed that the occurrence interval of a specified extreme wind speed is a random variable which follows the three-parameter or the two-parameter Weibull distribution, while the two-parameter Weibull model is a better choice. A case study is given to discuss the probability analysis results.