Abstract
We present a method of computing the probability distribution function of the Hubble constant H0 and the age of the universe t0, given the estimate of the Hubble constant in our nearby galaxy samples. Our method takes into account both the observational errors and the cosmic variance, and makes it possible to compute quantitatively the constraints on the cosmological models. Based on the present local observation H0 = 80 ± 17 km s-1 Mpc-1, the probability of H0 < 50 km s-1 Mpc-1 is about 6% for the Einstein-de Sitter universe (Ω0 = 1) and 4% for an open (Ω0 = 0.2) universe. These probabilities are reduced to 0.8% and 0.03%, respectively, if the accuracy of the observational uncertainty is improved within 10%. Similar probabilistic constraints on t0 are also discussed.
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