Abstract
This study aims to determine the best fit frequency distribution of rainfall patterns for event forecasting in order to address potential disasters. The monthly rainfall data were taken from the PAGASA which are analyzed using Chi-Square and K-S goodness-of-fit tests. Rainfall data for the past 26-30 years was used to determine the distribution pattern fitted into more than 60 Probability Distribution Functions (PDF). The best fitted PDF both in Kolmogorov-Smirnov and in Chi-square tests were used in statistical inferences. Findings showed that each site has specific theoretical probability distribution functions to infer rainfall events. Varying levels of rainfall events were measured using the CDF. Consequently, the statistical inferences found in this study are important for designing optimum flood control facilities. Moreover, it is also contributory for the effective management of irrigation system of the National Irrigation Administration for a more efficient water supply to the agricultural sector.
Highlights
Rainfall is the most important environmental factor contributory to agricultural activities of the Filipino people across regions in the country
It is vital to study the variability of rainfall pattern to address climate changes which resulted to occurrences of floods and droughts in several regions
There is a specific frequency distribution for each test statistic performed, or each rainfall data follows a specific Probability Distribution Functions (PDF), the differences observed in the results
Summary
Rainfall is the most important environmental factor contributory to agricultural activities of the Filipino people across regions in the country. Soil moisture management in some areas of the country is faced with limited and unreliable rainfall and high variability in rainfall pattern. It is vital to study the variability of rainfall pattern to address climate changes which resulted to occurrences of floods and droughts in several regions. Dry and wet seasons can be felt simultaneously in the country. When parts in Luzon have been flooded, most areas in Mindanao were experiencing dry season and vice versa as claimed by South Travels [1]. We have been receiving news of flash flood events in various parts of the country, the latest of which occurred in Northern Mindanao, while other areas (Luzon for instance) are experiencing limited rainfall. Similar variations can be noted in other parts of the globe as reported by JPL TRMM Team [2] and Melville [3]
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