Probability distribution and extreme value analysis of total suspended particulate matter in Kuwait

Abstract

Probability distribution and extreme value analysis were carried out on total suspended particulate matter (TSP) in Kuwait. The measured TSP data, available for about 10 years from three different locations in Kuwait, viz., Managhesh, Shuwaikh, and Kuwait City were used. For probability distribution analysis, four theoretical distributions were considered, namely Rayleigh, exponential, Gumbel, and log-normal distribution. Based on the study, it was found that log-normal distribution represented the measured daily average TSP value in Kuwait. The expected extreme daily average TSP values for 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods were estimated based on Gumbel, exponential, and Weibull extreme value distributions for these three locations. For 100-year return period, the expected TSP values in Managhesh were 5270, 5920, and 4584 μg/m3, based on Gumbel, exponential, and Weibull extreme value distributions, respectively. For the same return period, the expected TSP values in Shuwaikh were 11,255, 12,592, and 8771 μg/m3, and in Kuwait City, 7109, 8136, and 6494 μg/m3, based on Gumbel, exponential, and Weibull extreme value distributions, respectively. During an extreme dust storm in Kuwait, an extreme TSP of 9619 μg/m3 was recorded on 25 March 2011. The results of this study are an important input to understand the probability distribution of TSP and also for the analysis on the impact of TSP on the socioeconomic development and on the respiratory health issues in Kuwait.