Abstract
The number of Diabetes patients has risen in both the developing and the developed nations. It is associated with lot complications retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy etc. Diabetic retinopathy is one of the leading causes of preventable blindness. Diabetic patients have to be monitored at regular intervals to detect any signs of retinopathy and deterioration of vision and timely intervention. This requires lot of time and cost both on the part of the patient and the specialist. Therefore there is a need to differentiate the ' high risk ' patients from the ' low risk ' patients, so that the high risk ones can be managed more rigorously while the low risk patients can be referred for less frequent screenings and checkups. Data of around 100 patients with Grade 1 retinopathy was collected. Their physiological parameters with their DR grading after 3 years was recorded. Physiological parameters which were having a higher impact on the course of Retinopathy were taken (e.g. Mild blood urea, Hypertension and Smoking in this case). Transition probabilities of going from one stage to other were calculated. Probability of having a single physiological parameter in a given stage of DR at a given point of time was calculated. Probability of various combinations of these physiological parameters in a given stage of disease was calculated. Then by knowing the present stage of that disease future stage (3 years later in this case) of the disease can be predicted. Based on these predictions, the ' high risk ' patients are differentiated from the ' low risk ' patients and are accordingly referred for screenings and interventions.
Highlights
Diabetic Retinopathy is the leading cause of preventable blindness
Following are the physiological factors which have been reported to affect the course of Diabetic Retinopathy [9]. (1) Blood urea levels [2], (2) Blood hemoglobin level [3], (3) Hypertension [2] [4], (4) Antihypertensive drugs [5], (5) Smoking [3][6], (6) Obesity (Body Mass Index) [4][7], (7) Blood sugar levels [5][8], (8) Blood lipid levels [9], (9) Lipid lowering therapy, (10) Cardiovascular strokes history yes OR no, (11) Chronic inflammation history yes OR no, (12) Renal dysfunction blood creatinine levels, (13) Duration of disease [6], (14) Age [7]
Results and Discussion: [1]An approach of probability is being used. [2] 1st matrix consists of the transition probability of going from one stage of Diabetic Retinopathy to another to other. [3]The probability of having a particular physiological parameter is considered e.g. blood urea level which is taken into consideration here (Table 2, see supplementary material): So, another matrix consists of Probability P (xi | qi) of having Raised blood urea level (xi = true) based on the stage qi on some day I -Probabilities of combinations of the different physiological parameters at different Stages of Diabetic Retinopathy were calculated
Summary
Owing to increased number of diabetes cases in the country, there is an increased burden on the specialists for screening and treating such patients. Since the course of the disease is affected by the existing physiological parameters of the patients, there is a need to make a prediction to differentiate the high risk cases from the low risk patients so that the specialist can prioritize there treatment and divert the limited resources to the treatment of those who need them more urgently. Following are the physiological factors which have been reported to affect the course of Diabetic Retinopathy [9]. Various studies have shown that modification of risk factors (e.g., increased physical activity, reduction in weight) or some institution of treatment (e.g., diabetes and antihypertensive medications) may improve retinal vascular measures and might lower risks of diabetes, hypertension, and their associated complications [8]. Panretinal and focal retinal laser photocoagulation reduces the risk of visual loss in patients with severe DR and macular edema, respectively [9]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
