Probability Analysis for Failure Assessment of Electric Energy Metering Equipment Under Multiple Extreme Stresses

Abstract

The failure evaluation of electric energy metering equipment is essential for the equipment design and accurate measurement of electric energy, especially in extreme environmental stress. However, actual failure assessment is often affected by the environmental noise and insufficient interpretability. To address this problem, this article first proposes an improved k-nearest neighbor (IkNN) to identify potential outliers. In addition, an optimized distance function is used to obtain the score for each outlier. Next, a probability analysis method, namely, the weighted fusion Bayesian (WFB), is proposed to fuse multiple extreme environmental stresses and failure rate using the proposed nonlinear fusion function. Combining the WFB and the IkNN, examples from three extreme environmental regions show that the proposed evaluation framework has a higher assessment performance and less uncertainty. Compared with the classical prediction methods, our framework has profound outlier detection and failure prediction performance ever under the condition of small samples. More importantly, the parameters of this model are interpretable compared to some conventional approaches.