Probabilities of having minimum amounts of available soil water at wheat planting

Abstract

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow (WF) remains a prominent cropping system throughout the Central Great Plains despite documentation confirming the inefficiency of precipitation storage during the summer fallow period. Wheat yield is greatly influenced by available soil water at planting, and that quantity is influenced by cropping intensity, tillage intensity, crop grown prior to winter wheat planting, and length of the non-crop period prior to winter wheat planting. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of cropping system intensity, tillage, and crop prior to wheat planting on available soil water at planting and the probabilities of having certain minimum amounts of available soil water at wheat planting. Available soil water was measured at wheat planting for nine cropping systems varying in fallow frequency, tillage intensity, and crop prior to wheat over a 25-yr period at Akron, CO. Available soil water at wheat planting was found to be greatest (average 218 mm) for no-tillage (NT) and reduced-tillage (RT) systems in which a fallow period of 12–14 months preceded wheat planting. The lowest amounts of available soil water at wheat planting were found for the continuously cropped rotations (average 100 mm). The cumulative probability exceedance graphs of available soil water at planting fell into three groupings: 1) the five rotations that had a NT or RT fallow period prior to the next wheat crop; 2) the WF (conventional till) rotation; 3) the three rotations with either pea (Pisum sativum L.) or proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) prior to the next wheat crop. These graphs provide a valuable decision support tool for helping farmers assess risk in moving from a WF cropping system to a system of greater cropping intensity and diversity.