PROBABILITAS VARIABEL FUNDAMENTAL EKONOMI INDONESIA DAN TERHADAP TERJADINYA KRISIS FINANSIAL DI INDONESIA

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to implement financial crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Indonesia. This paper distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises and extract four groups of indicators from the literature become economic fundamental indicators such as external, financial, domestic (real and public) and global indicators, that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The financial systems of developing countries like Indonesia are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The model is also to implement financial contagion channel to capture the effect of contagion due to financial crises occured the regional economies Keywords: currency crises, banking crises, debt crises, leading indicator, contagion effect, signal approach, logit models