Probabilistic-based assessment of the bearing capacity of shallow foundations

Abstract

In this paper, a probabilistic distribution for the bearing capacity and safety factor of shallow foundations is proposed to account for the variability and randomness of the soil strength properties and applied loads. A probabilistic-based model is developed to assess the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to infer probabilistic descriptions of the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. The effects of the variation in strength and load random variables on the variation of the bearing capacity and the safety factor are studied. The generalized extreme value reduced to type II extreme distribution was proved to be best suited in describing the variability in both the bearing capacity of shallow foundations and the safety factor. The reliability index and the deterministic safety factor are compared. A risk-based safety factor for the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundations is proposed and assessed.