Abstract
Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul, in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault (PIF) within the next 50 and 100 years. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue, which includes earthquakes having moment magnitudes between Mw6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of an entire fault rupture, which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modeling. The tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters is represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for the next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in the Tuzla region for the next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, probabilistic inundation maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps, and the maximum inundation distance calculated in the entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, synthetic gauge points are selected along the western coast of Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the areas that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.
Highlights
The Marmara region, especially highly populated cities along the coasts of the Marmara Sea, is the heart of the Turkish economy in terms of having a great number of industrial facilities with the largest capacity and potential, refineries, ports and harbors
The main parameters focused in this study are the tsunami wave heights and inundation depths, and the results are shown in terms of probability of exceedance of threshold wave height and inundation depth values within the 50 and 100 years
We present the results of the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) for the Tuzla test site in terms of three different visualization categories for the 50 and 100 years
Summary
The Marmara region, especially highly populated cities along the coasts of the Marmara Sea, is the heart of the Turkish economy in terms of having a great number of industrial facilities with the largest capacity and potential, refineries, ports and harbors. Main active faults of the region pass through the Marmara Sea. coastal cities in the Marmara region, especially Istanbul, which has significant importance in terms of the economy and historical and sociocultural heritage with a population of more than 15 million, are under the threat of high damage due to possible big earthquakes and triggered tsunamis. According to Parsons (2004), the probability of occurrence of a M > 7 earthquake beneath the Marmara Sea was estimated to be 35 %–70 % in the following
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