Abstract
The empirical models commonly used for probabilistic life prediction do not provide adequate treatment of the physical parameters that characterize fatigue damage development. For these models, probabilistic treatment is limited to statistical analysis of strain-life regression fit parameters. In this paper, a model is proposed for life prediction that is based on separate nucleation and growth phases of total fatigue life. The model was calibrated using existing smooth specimen strain-life data, and has been validated for other geometries. Crack nucleation scatter is estimated based on the variability associated with smooth specimen and fatigue crack growth data, including the influences of correlation among crack nucleation and growth phases. The influences of crack nucleation and growth variability on life and probability of fracture is illustrated for a representative gas turbine engine disk geometry.
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