Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling of Flight Vehicles Based on Parameter Deviations

Abstract

To fully make use of the abundant parameter data obtained from flight experiments, a set of probabilistic trajectory modeling procedures was proposed in this study. In a loop of flight vehicle design, it is necessary to carry out real flight experiments which will bring some parameter data. These data usually take on statistical characteristics. From these statistical data, trajectory model parameters should essentially be taken as random variables in mathematical sense. Furthermore, the established trajectory model certainly should account for this kind of randomness then in some form for the design of trajectory is actually the design of parameters to some extent. Therefore, a probabilistic trajectory model was established taking the parameter deviations into consideration. For the overwhelmingly multitudinous parameters may make the modeling process impossible to handle and lead to no practical conclusions if all involved, the most influential parameters are selected first among. Simulation results indicate that the probabilistic model with parameter deviations involved can improve the flight performance and is more realistic, compared to a deterministic model.