Abstract
The existing studies on probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) are limited to integrated electricity and gas networks or integrated electricity and heating networks. This paper proposes a probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated electricity, gas and heating networks (EGH-IES). Four typical operation modes of an EGH-IES are presented at first. The probabilistic energy flow problem of the EGS-IES considering its operation modes and correlated uncertainties in wind/solar power and electricity/gas/heat loads is then formulated and solved by the Monte Carlo method based on Latin hypercube sampling and Nataf transformation. Numerical simulations are conducted on a sample EGH-IES working in the “electricity/gas following heat” mode to verify the probabilistic analysis proposed in this paper and to study the effects of uncertainties and correlations on the operation of the EGH-IES, especially uncertainty transmissions among the subnetworks.
Highlights
Electricity, gas and heating networks are designed and operated independently as individual systems
When the EGH-integrated energy systems (IES) works in mode 2, the heat node connected to the combined heat and power units (CHP) is set as the heat slack node and the CHP will maintain the overall heat power balance of the heating network. Both the electrical power generated and gas consumed by the CHP in mode 2 are determined by its heat demands, which indicates that heat service has a priority over electricity service, and variations in the heating network will be transmitted to both the electricity and gas networks
Steady-state models of an EGH-IES (Equations (1)–(13)), together with the operation modes presented in Section 3, constitute the deterministic energy flow (DEF) problem of the EGH-IES, which can be effectively solved by the Newton-Raphson method
Summary
Electricity, gas and heating networks are designed and operated independently as individual systems. Chen et al [20,21] presented a probabilistic power and gas flow model considering uncertainties in wind speeds and electricity/gas/heat loads, and solved the problem by Monte. This paper intends to study the probabilistic analysis of an electricity-gas-heat IES (EGH-IES) considering various operation modes and correlated uncertainties, and to disclose the effects of uncertainties and interactions on the operation of IES. Taking the operation mode “electricity/gas following heat” as an example, probabilistic interactions among the electricity/gas/heating networks and effects of uncertainties on the operation of the EGH-IES are investigated and discussed with numerical simulations.
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