Probabilistic-statistical models of the dynamics of climatic changes in the Altai Mountains

V N Ustinova,V V Zuev,D V Ovchinnikov,I G Ustinova,S L Bondarenko,A V Kirdjanov

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012025

Abstract

A probabilistic-statistical parameterization of time series characterizing geological and climatic processes allows determining some regularities by an autocorrelation analysis of signals which differ in nature. The use of the autocorrelation method for analyzing data related to solar and tectonic activity and characterizing the level of stratospheric ozone (total ozone content), hydrothermal regimes (De Martonne aridity index), and wood structure (maximum density of annual rings) allows us to find regularities in time series of various natural processes. Data on the maximum density of Siberian larch trees growing in the Altai Mountains made it possible to calculate the past changes in total ozone content and the aridity index in the Altai Mountains from 1900 to 2014 based on some similarities in the series and a separation of a dendrochronological signal into its main components.

Highlights

The current studies have linked the changes in the ozonosphere to the solar activity and tectonic changes in the lithosphere [1,2,3]
A probabilistic-statistical parameterization of time series characterizing geological and climatic processes allows determining some regularities by an autocorrelation analysis of signals which differ in nature
Data on the maximum density of Siberian larch trees growing in the Altai Mountains made it possible to calculate the past changes in total ozone content and the aridity index in the Altai Mountains from 1900 to 2014 based on some similarities in the series and a separation of a dendrochronological signal into its main components

Summary

Introduction

The current studies have linked the changes in the ozonosphere to the solar activity and tectonic changes in the lithosphere [1,2,3]. Ozone changes (the characteristic is the total content of ozone, TOC) in the atmosphere cause both growth and decrease in the number of extreme climatic events [4]. If the ozone concentration in the atmosphere decreases, some extreme weather conditions become more frequent and significant in amplitude. According to the results of single studies in Altai after 1998 there was a change in the phase of the temperature fluctuation. An essential tendency to changes in the quantity of atmospheric precipitation was not recorded. For certain regions of Altai, a delay of the rates of warming together with a cold snap tendency were noted. The same trend was observed for the nearby territory of Western Siberia [6]

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