Probabilistic State of Health and Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Li-Ion Batteries

Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in electric vehicles due to their high specific energy value. The continuous charge/discharge cycles pf batteries, determining a change of their State of Health (SoH) and a reduction of their Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The relevant literature describes a variety of methods for the prognostic of battery degradation and RUL estimation, based on electrochemical models or on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques. However, the capacity degradation of lithium-ion batteries depends on many uncertain parameters that are suitable to be estimated and modeled within a probabilistic framework. Therefore, the development of new probabilistic methodologies for the prognostic of lithium-ion batteries can be useful and effective. In this paper, probabilistic models based on time series (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous predictors, (ARIMAX)) and regression approaches (Linear Quantile Regression (LQR), Bootstrap Multiple Linear Regression (B-MLR) and Bayesian Bootstrap Multiple Linear Regression (BB-MLR)) are developed and compared for this purpose. All the considered models are specifically suited up to exploit data coming from Accelerated Degradation Tests (ADTs), and developed under two different approaches (i.e., non-differentiation and differentiation of the target time series) to predict SoH and RUL. Moreover, a dedicated procedure to extract a single, point value from the probabilistic predictions is presented to let the models work also in deterministic scenarios. The performance and the comparison between the proposals and several benchmarks taken from the literature are carried out using data from publicly available databases, confirming the validity and the accuracy of the proposed solutions.